Wanted: a crystal ball to predict the next 26 years

Amid much fanfare Hon Silvio Schembri, Minister for the Economy Enterprise and Strategic Projects, announced at a gathering of political grandees that he has a mandate from the prime minister. This involves taking oversight into the task of the next Vision 2050.  He was the minister responsible to lead Malta into the failed Blockchain appendage and crypto milieu.  

He was also the author of a previous Vision 2030.  So, what is new? The members of the Malta Council for Economic and Social Development (MCESD) were assured that this time, Castille has a new crystal ball. The latter will pave the way for our economic and social future. This is the beginning of a collaborative process that will shape Malta’s future for generations to come.  Such a prophetic Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee will be chaired jointly by Minister Silvio Schembri and the Head of Secretariat of the Office of the Prime Minister.  

MCESD members gathered to hear the wise words guided by an energetic minister of economy assisted by Perit David Xuereb; as the chairman of the council. Schembri welcomed the members reminding them that Vision Malta 2050 will set the country’s strategic direction for the coming decades with a strong focus on improving the quality of life for all. A key element of the vision will be alignment with the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality goal.  

In his words, this vision will not only commit to this goal but will also set concrete, achievable targets for 2035, providing a realistic pathway to success and ensuring steady progress towards a sustainable future. This time, as was the case in Vision 2030, both local and world-renowned experts will be on a leash to compile the desired roadmap.  Reporters asked about the timing of this projection when the finance minister is all geared up to unveil the 2025 budget.

The latter claims that he will be showering tax refunds as a feel-good ploy following the drop in party popularity in the last MEP elections. The key for Malta will be to identify its unique strengths and double down on them, while also creating an ecosystem that attracts global talent and investment. Back to vision 2050, MCESD members were told this will serve as a blueprint for the country's economic, social, and environmental development, establishing a forward-looking economic model that prioritises sectors such as digital innovation, infrastructure, education, healthcare, sustainability and employment demographics with the central goal of improving the quality of life for current and future generations. 

Quite a tall order. No details were disclosed whether experts so engaged will be selected following a transparent call for proposals (direct orders are usually the faster way). Again, no budget details were disclosed to journalists as to the cost for this ambitious task (compare this to the seminal treatise penned last month by Mario Draghi on the future sustainability of Europe). Do we need such fairytale projections when there is so much uncertainty in the world with two major wars running consequently in Ukraine and Middle East? Party apologists claim that this is not a waste of our hard-earned taxes, since it helps to focus attention towards changing economic direction and seek new avenues of prosperity.  

The Opposition laments that at present the economy stands at a crossroads, requiring decisive government action to address issues that affect our daily lives.  Despite the government’s frequent claims of job creation and economic growth, the reality for thousands of low-paid immigrants is that their standard of living and quality of life have declined. The vision is expected to steer the country toward sustainable economic growth, investing in high-value sectors and, most importantly, restoring public confidence in the country’s future. Will Vision 2050 help us change our mindset to invest more on the education system? Are we preparing young generations for the jobs of the future, particularly in emerging industries such as technology, AI and renewable energy?

Will the blue print emerging from Silvio Schembri’s latest hobby horse pave the way for growth, and serve as an alternative to the traditional top-down approach.  The goal is to create future-focused, outcome-oriented solutions that are purpose-driven and transformational rather than quick fixes for the next twenty-six years.

How will experts be selected to dovetail the budget 2025 projections to the new 2050 vision?  Will it manage to weave a seamless document?  Can they map out the pillars in the future that collectively shape the economy and the way it impacts society, quality of life, environment and natural heritage?  Many economic observers have criticised such long-term plans as they usually end up to be out of synch with reality.  

Simply, spending millions to well-groomed experts is a popular move to generate momentum in an economy which otherwise needs a root and branch overhaul. Ideally, such a vision will develop an overarching plan which inter alia considers population and tourism trajectory, built and green spaces, aesthetics, zoning, air quality and a planned reduction of fossil fuel when generating electricity.  

All this bravado has been repeated in annual budget speeches over the past decade, yet with hindsight it serves as a cross reference to Vision 2030 and now vision 2050 both engineered by the minister of economy.  Hope springs eternal that the penning of Vision 2050 be able to strategically improve our lack of transparency and governance failures that ushered a Grey listing. Can it invoke better chances to attract foreign investment?  How is this new vision converging with the current economic reality in Europe. In brief we observe how in the EU as a whole, industrial production was up by a mere 1.3 per cent.  

Quoting ING economist Bert Colijn, he said improvements in the inventory cycle will likely be more of a story for next year. Sadly, when it features the manufacturing sector, this means that we don’t expect a sustained recovery to start before 2025. In conclusion, one hopes that Vision 2050 will be the elixir for Malta to beat the trend and embark on a soul-searching mission how to buttress growth and inflation.